What are the life cycles of conflict? How is crisis prevention different from crisis management?

Conflict is as old as nature, an inherent phenomenon in the existence of mankind. This is premised on the gregarious nature of man which often ipso facto culminates into misunderstanding or quarrel in social relations, brought about by differences in preferences.

Stage 1- Beginning A conflict begins to take shape as the differences between the conflicting parties become clearly defined and people begin to take sides openly. The language of ‘us and them’ starts being widely used, and the idea of a ’cause’ to support emerges on both sides. There is no violence at this point. If a society is strong and its leaders enlightened, a conflict can be dealt with in a constructive and positive way at this stage, and violence and a worsening situation can be avoided.

Stage 2-Early growth

But if there are no existing ways of dealing with social tensions and divisions, the conflict grows I worse. The two sides express open hostility, so that ‘us and them’ now become the enemy’ to each other. Each side increases its demands, and its sense of grievance swells. Each side looks for allies from outside the conflict area, for moral and physical support. Acts of violence begin. 

If violence is not repressed, the opposing sides hit back at one another and a destructive and deadly spiral begins. If one of the sides has greater forces (as governments backed by armies do, for example, suppressing civilian opposition) it may at this stage suppress its opponents, but the underlying causes of conflict remain to break out another day.

Stage 3-Deadlock

Now the two sides are openly at war. Each side perceives the other as the aggressor on whom blame for the conflict falls. Each side regards itself as having the just cause. The lawlessness of war takes over, as inhibitions and restraints or violence are abandoned.

Three possible situations can now be reached: 

(a) a stalemate with each side matching the other in violence;

(b) a surge of violence on one side, 

(c) exhaustion of strength and resources on both sides (this has been called ‘a mutually-hurting stalemate’).

Situation (a) continues the spiral of violence, or may halt it at a particular level which both sides keep up.

Situation (b) can make a change: for example, one side’s increased power may cause the other side to change its tactics.

The conflict may return to earlier stage and repeat them. If a side now decides to withdraw, the conflict remains unresolved and is likely to begin again later.

Situation (c) is the position from which the conflict can most readily move t next stage.

Stage 4-Looking for a way out

If and when the conflict reaches a stage where both sides are unhappy with the state of things many losses, dwindling resources, no achievable result’ they may enter into ceasefire agreements. These provide a pause, which is often used for resting and regrouping before embarking on the earlier stages again. 

Sooner or later, however, both sides decide that ending the conflict is a problem they must both solve, though it has to be done without loss of face. At this point a third party can, be introduced to mediate and negotiate. This can be done, at first, without the leaders of the two sides having to meet each other.

Stage 5-Settling the dispute or resolving the conflict?

Settlements involve compromise, often with bitter arguments over what the compromises will be. They seldom lead to a solution in which the two sides can collaborate to establish a firm peace. Settlements establish ways in which either side is prepared to end conflict at least for the time being Conflict resolution, however, looks at the underlying causes which started the conflict and deals with them, so that the risks of future conflict are removed, or initially reduced.

Both sides join together to achieve this outcome. Complete resolution of a conflict is difficult after such great hostility, but may be reached after the passage of healing time if everyone has this aim.

Stage 6 - Working together 

Now the agreement has to be put into effect. Both sides need to create a new order together, rebuilding homes, restoring jobs and education, establishing enlightened management/government, disarming fighters and allowing refugees to return home. Even more important, the two sides have to face up to the past, share their griefs, and reconcile their differences.

This needs sensitivity, courage, and, above all, immense patience. crisis prevention different from crisis management: The close link with DEA results from the sharp increase in prolonged crisis and conflict situations such as those in Central Africa, in the Near East and Central Asia, in the Caucasus and in Southeast Europe. These situations are forcing the development community to find fresh responses to the conflicting objectives of short-term aid measures, and development cooperation measures that seek to help bring about structural change.

Furthermore, emergency aid faces three specific challenges: the unintended counterproductive effects of any aid delivered in prolonged conflict situations, its role within the framework of peace consolidation, and the simultaneity of post-war reconstruction and rehabilitation, and crisis prevention. To achieve any positive effects at all, emergency aid must deliver resources to the crisis region.  Inevitably, however, this creates a risk that the conflict situation itself may not remain unaffected by this.

Given the shortage of resources everyone, including the parties to the conflict, have a vested interested in utilising this transfer to their own advantage. This is compounded by the fact that general conditions surrounding the aid measures can be problematic (protection by militias, negotiations with ward lords over rights of passage, different treatment of international and national personnel). Consequently, this puts to the test both the neutrality of emergency aid, the effects it generates which might under certain circumstances prolong war, and the knock on effects that help stabilise the political system.

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